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COMPOS MENTIS
This column is to create a forum for ideas, passions and perspectives on our industry that are controversial,
provocative and energising. The views expressed here may be unpopular, politically incorrect, heretical or simply
humorous. They may be ideas that all of us have had but didn’t care (or dare) to articulate. The opinions expressed
are those of the author alone, but are probably shared by many who have yet to say so.
ROUGH RIDE AHEAD FOR
GB SMART METERING PROGRAMME
By Compos Mentis
Her Majesty’s Government smart
metering programme for Great Britain
is destined to give all those who are
mandated to mount the horse a very
rough ride. Each person or company
expecting to ride this beast had better be
prepared for it.
Meter manufacturers, in their rush to get
first mover advantage and fulfil contract
obligations, will need to produce and prove
designs is a great hurry. On the face of it, this
should be easy; after all this is what meter
manufacturers do for a living. Reality will bite
once systems integration issues with HAN and
WAN communications, protocol nuances, key
distribution problems etc. begin to show up.
With three agencies, albeit co-ordinated by
the Data & Communications Company (DCC),
all faced with many manufacturers nearly all
at the same time, it will be a bumpy ride to
success and scale. They can expect rocketing
costs as they pay DCC for the privilege of
having their meters certified as fit for use.
Not to mention stop – start deliveries against
contracts as they improve products on the fly.
Meter installers too will find their life hard.
For starters they install four items: an electric
meter, a gas meter, a communications hub
and an in-home display (IHD) in every home.
Establishing radio communications between
four devices in every customer’s home, by
itself, is not trivial. Add to it the complexity of
having to deal with three different agencies
for WAN communications and commissioning
and you have the recipe for a long install time
and an expensive installation. The ride to a
smooth install process will be a very bumpy
one with a number of process changes, which
will be needed to be effectively understood
by thousands of technicians in vans, before it
becomes efficient.
Energy suppliers, responsible for providing
smart meters to their customers, will have
the hardest time of all. First of all they have
the critical decision to make – are the IT
processes delivered by DCC robust enough
to really begin a mass scale rollout? If they
get this judgment wrong, they will have
METERING INTERNATIONAL ISSUE - 5 | 2014
some very upset customers, a situation
every supplier will want to avoid like the
plague. This writer predicts that the route
to this decision is paved with problems.
Each supplier, each meter manufacturer
and each communications provider will
appear different to the DCC (in theory they
should not, but anyone who knows protocol
standards will understand) and each will
demand their bits get sorted out more or
less at the same time. Nearly all suppliers
begin with very limited skills in metering,
so one can expect a lot of finger pointing
and damages claims between suppliers,
meter manufacturers and the three DCC
constituent contractors. Of course, while
all this is happening, the supplier has to
keep their revenues from legacy meters
flowing and will bear the cost of running two
systems. How long this pain lasts depends
on how quickly the transition can be made.
2020 says the Government. At least 2022,
says common sense.
And last, but not least, what of the energy
user for whose benefit this programme was
launched? Many users can expect lengthy
and failed installations and more than one
installation visit. They can expect to receive
an IHD, which most will find an interesting toy
for the first couple of weeks and then it will be
promptly misplaced. They can also expect the
unwelcome consequence of bigger energy
bills, much bigger than most imagine.
DCC is really only a contracting agency
and as they have contracted out various
bits, they have contracted the service they
would provide. Today, they expect ‘Initial Live
Operation’ (ILO) by end 2015. As Compos
Mentis reported in an earlier piece, this date
is already impossible to meet. Rollout will
only start once suppliers make the decision
that the service is Robust Enough to Sustain
a Rollout (RESR). Between ILO and RESR will
be many months, change notes and change-
associated costs. It will take someone braver
than Compos Mentis to predict these. It will
only take common sense to recognise reality
and reset the ambitious timescales.
So where will this leave the Government
and the Programme Delivery Body tasked
with ensuring a smooth rollout with full user
engagement? Definitely not in a very happy
place. Unless, of course, the next election
in May 2015 finds a Secretary of State of a
different colour in office. That will, at least for
starters, allow the old political game of blame-
it-on-the-previous-government to be played
with some legitimacy. But then the stark
reality of the complex task of unravelling this
expensive mess will dawn. Can the position
be retrieved without even more costs? There
is an easy way, visible for all to see today:
energy supplier led early phase installations,
nearly a million of them, all working well and
serving customers cost effectively at a cost
energy suppliers can afford. MI
Ofgem, the energy regulator, will have a hard
ride on this one too. At present it is probably
happy that the programme was taken away
from its hands by the Government. But it is
bound to have its hands full with customer
complaints and settling the consequences
of the major cost and time escalations from
this programme. The least it can do today, is
to make a realistic assessment of the status
of the programme and alter the licence
conditions of the suppliers to reflect reality.
A programme as complex as this smart meter
rollout needed a programme management
team of the type a Heathrow Terminal 5 or
London Olympics 2012 had. What it has got
so far is a complex web of committees that
have set out regulations which will bind the
industry for the next 15 or 20 years in an
expensive, almost National Health Service like,
IT program. Committees that believe that their
work is good enough to place a moratorium
on innovation for the next twenty years in the
area of equipment installed in every home.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Compos Mentis is Latin for “a sound mind.” This is the
chosen pseudonym of a prominent European expert
with more than 20 years of direct experience in metering,
AMI and smart grid applications worldwide. The cloak of
anonymity allows him to insightfully ”pop the balloons” of
conventional utility industry thinking.
If you would like to comment on this Viewpoint, please
write to the author at cm@metering.com
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