SOUTH AFRICA Electricity economics and ideology in South Africa South Africa, a country with major electricity sector challenges, many of these self-imposed, has a government policy with an aggressive carbon footprint reduction imperative – but considering its socioeconomic situation how appropriate is this? G lobally, the way electricity is sourced is already highly politicised and becoming more so. Two opposing camps are forming between those who believe that security of supply and more affordable electricity is the first priority and those who believe climate change mitigation is. In a trend starting from about 1750 and continuing up to today, socio-economic conditions and average life expectancy for a significant proportion of humanity has improved dramatically. This has coincided with the availability and use of large amounts of cheap energy sourced from fossil fuels: coal, oil and now gas. Between 1850 and 2010 the global population increased 5.5 times, and in 2050 human population on Earth is expected to peak at some 9.3 billion compared with today’s 7.2 billion. Per capita consumption of energy between 1850 and 2010 increased 8.9 times and this comes to a total consumption increase of 49 times over this period. Of the 7.2 billion people today 3.7 billion are urbanised; in 2015 6.3 billion of the projected 9.3 billion will be urbanised which implies further increases in energy usage. There is a fairly direct correlation between human development and per capita electricity consumption. While the two are interdependent to a degree it is fair to say that the availability of affordable electricity leads to the former. Fossil fuels currently provide 81% of global energy supply and account for 68% of anthropogenic emissions. Dave Collins, associate director of Mac Consulting, suggests that humanity’s use of fossil fuels is a blip in history covering some 300 years between about 1800 and 2100. While the role fossil fuels has played and is still playing in humanity’s improved situation cannot be underestimated, they are only a stepping stone and the greater the number of superior alternatives that can emerge the better. ESI AFRICA ISSUE 2 2014 Dave Collins, associate director of Mac Consulting. Almost all scenarios created by a variety of global organisations ranging from the World Energy Council and the International Energy Agency to international oil companies (IOCs) indicate that in absolute terms energy demand will go up and that use of fossil fuels will go up, even if gas replaces coal as the major area of growth. According to a forecast by BP the use of fossil fuels for energy in 2010 amounted to 441 Exajoules (EJ) (441 x 10 18 Joules) and this will increase to 549 EJ by 2025 even as the percentage of fossil fuel use comes down from 81% to 78%. By 2040 this is forecast to increase to 597 EJ even as the fossil fuel usage percentage is reduced further to 75% of the total. At the same time climate change modelling has put the world on track for a 3.5 o to 4.0 o average increase in global temperature by 2100 based on current trends. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says there is unequivocal evidence that since 1950 Earth’s oceans and atmosphere have warmed and scientists are now 95% certain that humans are the dominant cause. It is largely accepted that human migration away from fossil fuels will be a long term process, and the emphasis has shifted towards achieving greater resilience and adapting to the possible impacts of this. The IPCC says that the world needs to reduce emissions from fossil fuels and the replacement of coal fired generation with natural-gas fired combined cycle power stations is a big step in that direction. 7