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WIND Lessons for South Africa’s wind sector South Africa’s emerging utility scale wind industry has the advantage of insights from international experience where the onshore equivalent has been in existence for a couple of decades. W hile South Africa’s integrated resource plan (IRP) update of 2013 indicates less wind power to be installed in the country by 2030 than was indicated in 2010, mainly due to the improvement in the prices of photovoltaic technology, the fact remains that the country has a substantial nascent wind industry. Director of corporate law dealing with independent power producers at South Africa’s national treasury, Lena Mangondo, speaking at a wind energy conference in Cape Town during April 2013, said that the philosophy was to avoid dramatic changes to the country’s power generation capacity expansion plan as expressed by the IRP. She said that while the updated IRP (in draft form) allocated less wind generation capacity, it is a living document and will be revised regularly. “This should be done every two years.” Mangondo says that one of the key assumptions is around carbon emissions and the need to reduce South Africa’s carbon footprint, while taking into account the ability to sustain the national power system. “The demand focus is uncertain in the long term, and relative performance of the technologies could change – and changes in assumptions could lead to changes in capacity planning. These need to be taken into account in the updates.” She goes on to say that the IRP also needs to balance cost optimal generation, as well as the importance of certainty in the market. “Most assumptions are tested over time, and therefore IRP updates represent more of a revision and so should avoid major changes.” Thus there is some visibility for South Africa’s wind sector in the medium term. With the first three bid windows of South Africa’s renewable energy independent power producer programme (REIPPP), and Eskom’s Sere wind project added in, some 2,065 MW of wind generation capacity is under construction or has been committed to in the country. Mangondo says that another 1,470 MW of wind is available for allocation in bid rounds four, five and six and ultimately the long term capacity of the wind sector in South Africa will be determined by the amount and price of gas-fired generation available. It will be important to bring in flexible dispatchable Director of corporate law dealing with independent power producers at South Africa’s national treasury, Lena Mangondo. The Jeffreys Bay wind farm in South Africa. ESI AFRICA ISSUE 2 2014 67